For the past couple weeks, I’ve been slowly introducing you to some of my Duke I&E colleagues — the brilliant people I get to work with every day who help shape how we teach and think about entrepreneurship here at Duke and who are going to start sharing their ideas here in EOH with all of you.
This week’s insight comes from Jamie Jones, the Director of Duke Innovation & Entrepreneurship, and — full disclosure — my boss. (We’ll try not to hold that against her.)
Here’s the short lesson Jamie shared when I asked her what she thinks every entrepreneur should know:
“The most important thing I’ve learned about entrepreneurship is that it’s not about having the perfect idea, it’s about learning faster than the uncertainty around you. The best founders don’t start with answers; they start with curiosity. They test what they think they know, look for evidence before conviction, and stay close to the people they’re trying to serve. Entrepreneurship isn’t about predicting the future, it’s about running smart experiments until you build it.”
That might be one of the best summaries of entrepreneurship I’ve ever read. And I promise I’m not writing that just because Jamie controls my employment. Let me explain why it’s so good…
The Myth of the Perfect Idea
Entrepreneurs love to talk about “the idea.” It’s the glamorous part of the entrepreneur origin story… the “lightning bolt.” The eureka moment. The mythical spark that changes everything. But Jamie’s right — ideas aren’t the scarce resource. The scarce resource is certainty.
As a result, the best founders aren’t the ones with the best ideas. Ideas are cheap. Instead, the best founders are the ones who learn which of their ideas are wrong faster than everyone else.
That’s the real work — learning faster than uncertainty.
I realize that’s not how we usually describe entrepreneurship. But step back and really think about the job for a moment. It makes a lot of sense, right?
Entrepreneurship Is a Science Experiment
If you think about it, every startup begins as a hypothesis:
“I believe people have this problem.”
“I believe they’ll pay for this solution.”
“I believe we can deliver it sustainably.”
The key word there is believe. You don’t know any of those things at the start — you’re guessing. To be clear, guessing isn’t inherently bad. In fact, it’s necessary. But the danger starts showing up when you mistake guesses for facts.
As Jamie points out, that’s where great entrepreneurs separate themselves from everyone else. They run experiments — small, smart, cheap tests that help them turn belief into evidence.
In other words, they don’t just think fast. They learn fast. They obsess about getting to the truth as quickly as possible by putting aside their own biases and searching for the real data.
I can’t begin to explain just how hard this is. As entrepreneurs, we tend to be overconfident and wildly optimistic. That’s a bad combination because it causes us to act and behave based one what we think (those “I have a great idea!” moments) rather than what we know. The only way to overcome that impulse is to embrace the science experiment of it all.
Curiosity Before Conviction
For me, the key line from Jamie’s reflection is: “[Entrepreneurs] look for evidence before conviction.” And it makes sense she’d believe that when you remember Jamie earned a PhD in Chemistry before going to business school and starting her own companies. She’s got the background of a scientist, and scientists are always looking for evidence.
Entrepreneurs should be, too!
Too often, founders fall in love with their ideas and defend them like religion. But the great ones — the ones who actually make it — don’t build from conviction. They build from curiosity.
They ask questions. They talk to customers. They gather data. They adapt. And in doing so, they reduce uncertainty just a little faster than everyone else.
That’s the job.
Entrepreneurship isn’t about being right. It’s about getting less wrong — quickly. To do that, you need to:
Learn faster than uncertainty.
Stay curious longer than conviction.
Make as many decisions as possible based on data rather than feelings.
Do those three things, and you’ll eventually built your way toward something that works one tested assumption at a time.
— Aaron
This week’s new articles…
The Shockingly Harsh Math of Venture Capital
Venture capital isn’t a mentorship program, a startup accelerator, or a charity for dreamers. It’s an asset class.
The Cheat Code to Getting Your First 100 Customers
Entrepreneurs struggle getting their first customers because they do the exact opposite of what actually works.
Office Hours Q&A
QUESTION:
Hi Dr. Dinin,
First off, thanks for everything you put out into the world. I’m not a student. Not even close, unfortunately. But I always feel like I’m learning when I come across your content.
I’ve been running a small business for about three years now, and recently one of my biggest clients left. I still have other clients and I’m not in danger of shutting down or anything, but it made me realize how fragile everything is and how much I’ve been relying on a few key people.
I guess my question is: how do you think about building stability into a company that’s dependent on a few key accounts?
Thanks again,
Talia
Yikes… that’s a big question.
There are tactical answers, of course. Build a wider customer base. Diversify revenue streams. Offer new packages or products that bring in smaller clients so you’re not as reliant on the big ones. All good ideas.
But if I had to give a more structural answer — one I wish I’d learned earlier — it’s this: Design for resilience, not just growth.
It’s really easy to mistake growth for security. You land a big client, or two, or three, and suddenly everything feels stable. But growth concentrated in a few places is more like scaffolding than a foundation. It holds things up… until it doesn’t.
The real goal is structured resilience.
Resilience means creating systems that work even when one thing breaks. It means pricing and scoping your offerings so new clients aren’t a massive lift. It means automating the boring stuff so you can spend your energy on strategy instead of triage. It means, weirdly enough, sometimes choosing a slightly less lucrative opportunity because it gives you more flexibility or control.
And, most of all, it means building with the assumption that not everything — or everyone — will always be there.
I know that last bit probably seems a little gloomy, but I promise it’s not. It’s actually empowering. The moment you start designing for resilience is the moment you stop being reactive and start taking control of your business.
Got startup questions of your own? Reply to this email with whatever you want to know, and I’ll do my best to answer.